LAWRENCE TRANSIT SYSTEM
.15% Sales Tax Analysis
6/4/2008
Estimated Revenues:	FY09	FY10	FY11	FY12	FY13	FY14	FY15	FY16	FY17	FY18
FTA Section 5307	$1,496,307	$1,496,307	$1,541,196	$1,587,432	$1,635,055	$1,684,107	$1,734,630	$1,786,669	$1,840,269	$1,895,477	Assumes 3% annual growth, except in FY10 due to anticipated Continuing Resolution.
Kansas CTP	$250,992	$250,986	$250,986	$250,986	$250,986	$250,986	$250,986	$250,986	$250,986	$250,986	Assumes funding remains at same level even though CTP will expire at the end of FY09.
Fares/Bus Pass Revenue	$312,000	$327,600	$343,980	$361,179	$379,238	$398,200	$418,110	$430,653	$443,573	$456,880	Assumes 5% annual growth based on fares remaining at current levels.
Local .15% Sales Tax	$1,127,963	$1,972,323	$2,011,769	$2,052,005	$2,093,045	$2,134,906	$2,177,604	$2,221,156	$2,265,579	$2,310,891	Assumes 2% annual growth
	$3,187,262	$4,047,216	$4,147,931	$4,251,602	$4,358,324	$4,468,199	$4,581,330	$4,689,464	$4,800,407	$4,914,234
Estimated Expenditures:
Personal	$235,902	$240,620	$245,432	$250,341	$255,348	$260,455	$265,664	$270,977	$276,397	$281,925	Assumes 2% annual growth
Operating Contract (Status Quo level of service combined with KU)	$2,929,798	$3,043,810	$3,158,977	$3,288,305	$3,425,563	$3,562,586	$3,705,089	$3,853,293	$4,007,425	$4,167,722	Based on pricing from MV growth increases by between 3.9% and 4.2% annually FY09-FY13 and 4% annually thereafter.
Other Contractual	$177,435	$180,984	$184,604	$188,296	$192,062	$195,903	$199,821	$203,817	$207,893	$212,051	Assumes 2% annual growth
Commodities	$668,400	$735,240	$741,924	$816,116	$897,728	$987,501	$1,086,251	$1,194,876	$1,314,364	$1,445,800	Assumes 10% annual growth of fuel costs
Capital replacement of T Lift paratransit vehicles	$180,000	$189,000	$198,450	$208,373	$218,792	$229,732	$241,219	$253,280	$265,944	$279,241	Assumes 5% annual growth
	$4,191,535	$4,389,654	$4,529,387	$4,751,431	$4,989,493	$5,236,177	$5,498,044	$5,776,243	$6,072,023	$6,386,739
Estimated Surplus/(Deficit)	($1,004,273)	($342,438)	($381,456)	($499,829)	($631,169)	($767,978)	($916,714)	($1,086,779)	($1,271,616)	($1,472,505)
Other Assumptions:
(1) Does not factor capital expenses for T fixed-route vehicle replacement or other transit system capital/infrastructure needs.
(2) Operating costs based on MV Transportation pricing for FY09 - FY13 and assumes 4% annual growth rate in operating contract costs thereafter.
(3) Does not factor having to add T Lift paratransit service hours in the future to avoid patterns of denial as demand for service increases.
(4) Fare and monthly bus pass sales revenue is based on current fares charged.  Does not factor any future fare increases.
(5) Based on historical data, the lowest fare/bus pass sales revenue has increased annually since the transit system was launched has been 5%.
(5) Kansas Comprehensive Transportation Program (CTP) expires at the end of FY09 and the State Legislature will be discussing a new program.
The Secretary of Transportation would like to see a greater investment statewide in Public Transit and it is possible that state funding for transit purposes could increase in the future.
(6) FY09 Sales Tax effective date is April 09.  June 30 initial collections (7 months)
(7) In FY10 anticipate that the Federal Gov't will operate under a Continuing Resolution due to Congress delaying the passing of a new Federal Transportation Bill and funding will remain at FY09 levels.
Congress has never passed a transportation bill on time.
(8) According to national news, the average price for gasoline nationwide on May 15, 2007 was $3.10 (includes tax).  Today, the average gallon of gasoline nationwide is $3.67.  That represents a 18.39% increase in cost.
(9) The cost of diesel fuel in May 2007 was $2.52 per gallon, excluding federal tax.  As of 5/14/08 the price per gallon for diesel was $4.14 excluding federal tax.  This represents a $1.62 per gallon or 64.3% increase in fuel cost.
(10) According to MV as of May 23rd, the price of gasoline per gallon was $3.96 that includes federal tax.
(11) According to MV as of May 23rd, the price of type 2 diesel fuel per gallon was $4.75 including federal tax.