| LAWRENCE TRANSIT SYSTEM | ||||||||||||||||||||
| .25% Sales Tax Analysis | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 6/4/2008 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Estimated Revenues: | FY09 | FY10 | FY11 | FY12 | FY13 | FY14 | FY15 | FY16 | FY17 | FY18 | ||||||||||
| FTA Section 5307 | $1,496,307 | $1,496,307 | $1,541,196 | $1,587,432 | $1,635,055 | $1,684,107 | $1,734,630 | $1,786,669 | $1,840,269 | $1,895,477 | Assumes 3% annual growth, except in FY10 due to anticipated Continuing Resolution. | |||||||||
| Kansas CTP | $250,992 | $250,986 | $250,986 | $250,986 | $250,986 | $250,986 | $250,986 | $250,986 | $250,986 | $250,986 | Assumes funding remains at same level even though CTP will expire at the end of FY09. | |||||||||
| Fares/Bus Pass Revenue | $312,000 | $327,600 | $343,980 | $361,179 | $379,238 | $398,200 | $418,110 | $430,653 | $443,573 | $456,880 | Assumes 5% annual growth based on fares remaining at current levels. | |||||||||
| Local .25% Sales Tax | $1,879,938 | $3,287,205 | $3,352,949 | $3,420,008 | $3,488,408 | $3,558,176 | $3,629,340 | $3,701,927 | $3,775,965 | $3,851,485 | Assumes 2% annual growth | |||||||||
| $3,939,237 | $5,362,098 | $5,489,111 | $5,619,605 | $5,753,687 | $5,891,469 | $6,033,066 | $6,170,235 | $6,310,793 | $6,454,828 | |||||||||||
| Estimated Expenditures: | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Personal | $235,902 | $240,620 | $245,432 | $250,341 | $255,348 | $260,455 | $265,664 | $270,977 | $276,397 | $281,925 | Assumes 2% annual growth | |||||||||
| Operating Contract (Status Quo level of service combined with KU) | $2,929,798 | $3,043,810 | $3,158,977 | $3,288,305 | $3,425,563 | $3,562,586 | $3,705,089 | $3,853,293 | $4,007,425 | $4,167,722 | Based on pricing from MV growth increases by between 3.9% and 4.2% annually and 4% annually thereafter. | |||||||||
| Other Contractual | $177,435 | $180,984 | $184,604 | $188,296 | $192,062 | $195,903 | $199,821 | $203,817 | $207,893 | $212,051 | Assumes 2% annual growth | |||||||||
| Commodities | $668,400 | $735,240 | $741,924 | $816,116 | $897,728 | $987,501 | $1,086,251 | $1,194,876 | $1,314,364 | $1,445,800 | Assumes 10% annual growth of fuel costs | |||||||||
| Capital replacement of T Lift paratransit vehicles | $180,000 | $189,000 | $198,450 | $208,373 | $218,792 | $229,732 | $241,219 | $253,280 | $265,944 | $279,241 | Assumes 5% annual growth | |||||||||
| $4,191,535 | $4,389,654 | $4,529,387 | $4,751,431 | $4,989,493 | $5,236,177 | $5,498,044 | $5,776,243 | $6,072,023 | $6,386,739 | |||||||||||
| Estimated Surplus/(Deficit) | ($252,298) | $972,444 | $959,724 | $868,174 | $764,194 | $655,292 | $535,022 | $393,992 | $238,770 | $68,089 | $5,203,403 | |||||||||
| Other Assumptions: | ||||||||||||||||||||
| (1) Does not factor capital expenses for T fixed-route vehicle replacement or other transit system capital/infrastructure needs. | ||||||||||||||||||||
| (2) Operating costs based on MV Transportation pricing for FY09 - FY13 and assumes 4% annual growth rate in operating contract costs thereafter. | ||||||||||||||||||||
| (3) Does not factor having to add T Lift paratransit service hours in the future to avoid patterns of denial as demand for service increases. | ||||||||||||||||||||
| (4) Fare and monthly bus pass sales revenue is based on current fares charged. Does not factor any future fare increases. | ||||||||||||||||||||
| (5) Based on historical data, the lowest fare/bus pass sales revenue has increased annually since the transit system was launched has been 5%. | ||||||||||||||||||||
| (5) Kansas Comprehensive Transportation Program (CTP) expires at the end of FY09 and the State Legislature will be discussing a new program. | ||||||||||||||||||||
| The Secretary of Transportation would like to see a greater investment statewide in Public Transit and it is possible that state funding for transit purposes could increase in the future. | ||||||||||||||||||||
| (6) FY09 Sales Tax effective date is April 09. June 30 initial collections (7 months) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| (7) In FY10 anticipate that the Federal Gov't will operate under a Continuing Resolution due to Congress delaying the passing of a new Federal Transportation Bill and funding will remain at FY09 levels. | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Congress has never passed a transportation bill on time. | ||||||||||||||||||||
| (8) According to national news, the average price for gasoline nationwide on May 15, 2007 was $3.10 (includes tax). Today, the average gallon of gasoline nationwide is $3.67. That represents a 18.39% increase in cost. | ||||||||||||||||||||
| (9) The cost of diesel fuel in May 2007 was $2.52 per gallon, excluding federal tax. As of 5/14/08 the price per gallon for diesel was $4.14 excluding federal tax. This represents a $1.62 per gallon or 64.3% increase in fuel cost. | ||||||||||||||||||||
| (10) According to MV as of May 23rd, the price of gasoline per gallon was $3.96 that includes federal tax. | ||||||||||||||||||||
| (11) According to MV as of May 23rd, the price of type 2 diesel fuel per gallon was $4.75 including federal tax. | ||||||||||||||||||||